Can You Beat the Casinos at Their Own Game?

by Carl Van Eton

Image courtesy of commons.wilimedia.org

The title of the world's first card counting book was called "Beat the Dealer."  It was written by Edward O.Thorpe who wasn't a professional player by trade.  What he was when he wrote the book in 1962, was a mathematician.  That means he was smart enough to realize that the only way anyone could overcome the house edge at 21 was by using math.  He realized that unlike nearly every other game in the house (the exception being poker), every time a card was drawn from the deck, the odds changed.  But what really made blackjack a worthy research project was the fact that sometimes, whether players realized it or not, the edge was not with the house.  Sometimes the odds in blackjack favored the player.

You Can't Win Them All

By Carl Van Eton

Image courtesy of Vimeo.com

You’re familiar with the old adage, “You can’t win them all.”  Well, that saying applies doubly in the casinos.  First of all, there is the matter of selecting the right game to play.  By that, I mean if your game of choice is governed by a random trial process where one outcome has no effect on the next, your ability to beat these games is limited at best.  Sure, you might be on a craps table just in time for a monster roll that nets thousands of dollars.  But if you record every win and loss, you will find out over time that all those little losses will more than overcome any occasional dice windfall.

The same goes for roulette, especially if you play an American wheel with 2 house numbers.  The average house edge for every bet on an American wheel is 5.26%.  So, while you may find success in any given hour of play, should you continue to wager on the wheel, sooner or later the math will out and the worm will turn.

Nobody's Perfect

By Carl Van Eton

Image courtesy of Big Game Blackjack

As I have pointed out to players time and again, it doesn't matter how high of a mathematical
advantage a card counting system may purport to offer.  A multi-parameter advanced point count with a 1.5% player's edge sounds great on paper.  But if you have to perform a myriad of mental gymnastics to achieve it, what good is it going to do you.  That 1.5% advantage is based on perfect play.  I hate to break it to you, but nobody's perfect.  Even I make a mistake or two from time to time.  I'm only human.