Why do Bad Players Make You Angry?

By Carl Van Eton

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In a perfect world, every player that sits down at a blackjack table either knows perfect basic strategy, or at least has the common sense to bring along a mathematically correct basic strategy card. Unfortunately, if you have spent more than ten minutes at a blackjack table, you know that this is not  the case.  The playing public, by and large, has either missed the briefing regarding basic strategy, or else they didn't realize that such knowledge exists. 

You've undoubtedly witnessed the bonehead at third base draw to a hard fifteen versus a dealer five up only to catch the ten that would have busted the dealer. You've gritted your teeth as a neophyte blackjack player stood pat on an ace-four combo, even with the dealer advising him or her that "You  can't bust by drawing another card." How many times have you slammed the table with the palm of your hand in disgust as the jerk with the five dollar wager split tens, only to have the dealer draw to twenty one and sweep the table clean? 

Is that what's bothering you, Bunky? 

Or, don't you just HATE the guy who not only plays incorrect basic strategy, but loudly insists that you follow suit? You know what I'm talking about. You're sitting at center field and catch a ten and a deuce. The dealer is showing a three so you motion for a hit.  The dealer whips out a ten and busts you out. 

"The hell'd you do that for?" the bleary-eyed guy in the screaming Hawaiian shirt accuses from first base. "Yeah, I'm talkin' to you!" 

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At first you look at your own hand thinking that maybe it was a total of thirteen that you hit. But no, before the dealer finishes scooping up the bust, you look again. Your mind rewinds the tape and you catch yourself  thinking, "Stand with a hard twelve versus a dealer four, five, or six up. Hit versus two, three, or seven through ace." You did the right thing. You made the correct play. Suddenly you feel yourself beginning to get more than a little steamed.  You feel like bellowing back in the lunkhead's face, "Why don't you just let us all assume that you're an idiot. Why go and remove every last doubt?" 

Of course by this time, the same player will have undoubtedly doubled with a total of eight or made some other ludicrous decision, then blamed you for screwing up the cards. Sound familiar?

More to the point, does the action of a "bad player," the one who employs either no basic strategy, or imperfect basic strategy, cost you, the picture perfect basic strategy player, money? While you might be able to remember all too vividly the times that bonehead players cost you to lose what otherwise would have been a winning hand, this is not enough to regard as mathematically significant. When it comes to memory, the human psyche is a funny thing. It allows us to recall with startling clarity misfortunes and catastrophes much more easily than it does triumphs. 

Sure, you can remember all the times when a bad call by another player cost you money. What you fail to take into account are all the times when a bad play caused the dealer to bust out instead of drawing out, or the time that magic eight landed on your ace-deuce double down, when you should have caught a ten.   Selective amnesia is the technical the term used to describe this phenomenon. Unfortunately, while this condition makes for lively cocktail party banter, it is has no real effect on the math of the game. 

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Like it or not, cold, hard mathematics is what was used to develop and refine basic strategy. Contrary to popular opinion, basic strategy did not hatch like some mathematical egg, fully blown. It was first extrapolated by a group of researchers at the Aberdeen Proving Ground during the latter part of the 1950's, using electronic calculators no less. Their research was further improved by one Dr. Julian
Braun, who in the early sixties employed an IBM mainframe to run millions of possible card combinations to construct the basic strategy that is still used to this day. 

While it might seem obvious to you that bad players cost you money, what you have to understand is that you are basing this judgement on an extremely small set of occurences. If you played for eight hours per day, three hundred days per year and meticulously recorded the results every time another player miscued his or her hand,  the results would still prove inconclusive. 

Further more, over the intervening years, exhaustive computer simulations have been conducted and their results analyzed. To date, these studies have failed to link player performance to anything other than the rules at the table and the decisions associated with the cards remaining in the shoe. In other words, in not one instance has incorrect play by another player influenceed the house edge or the performance of other players at the table. 

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Such factors as the shuffle, the cut, the number of hands in play, the rules, and the count do influence a player's success or failure at the tables. When a player stands, hits, surrenders, splits, or doubles down, card flow is most certainly effected. But the process itself has proven essentially random. Over the long run, the effect of other players decisions on your probabilities is inconsequential. 

That doesn't necessarily mean that you have to sit there and take it. Just as in any other sport, the psychology of a game can have a profound effect on the participants. I have personally seen capable card counters make purposeful strategy deviations based on the count. I have also seen the same players make error after error, or lose the count altogether when they encountered imperfect play by other players. 

Personally, I avoid at all costs tables that contain inebriated players, boisterous players, or chatty Kathy's whose nonstop banter is a distraction. Other than that, I will remain seated as long as the odds are not unduly slanted in the house's favor, or until I have reached a predetermined departure point. 

My advice to other players is to either to learn to live with bad players, or else bring enough perfect players to fill a table. Because like it or not, the legions of boneheads outnumber capable players by about one hundred to one. More to the point, if you really want to make a meaningful difference to your success or failure at the blackjack tables, you need to do more than learn basic strategy.  That's becayse basic strategy is not enough to overcome the house edge.  However, possessing the ability to play perfect basic strategy does reduce the house edge to around one half of one percent.  From there you are but one step away from possessing an advantage over the house, provided you are willing to learn an effective card count system.  

Want to learn more?  Carl Van Eton has more than 20 years of professional playing experience.  If you want to stop visiting your money every time you go to the casinos, check out his website at http://biggameblackjack.com