By Carl Van Eton
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| Image courtesy of Vimeo.com |
You’re familiar with the
old adage, “You can’t win them all.”
Well, that saying applies doubly in the casinos. First of all, there is the matter of
selecting the right game to play. By
that, I mean if your game of choice is governed by a random trial process where
one outcome has no effect on the next, your ability to beat these games is
limited at best. Sure, you might be on a
craps table just in time for a monster roll that nets thousands of
dollars. But if you record every win and
loss, you will find out over time that all those little losses will more than
overcome any occasional dice windfall.
The same goes for roulette,
especially if you play an American wheel with 2 house numbers. The average house edge for every bet on an
American wheel is 5.26%. So, while you
may find success in any given hour of play, should you continue to wager on the
wheel, sooner or later the math will out and the worm will turn.
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| Image courtesy of Big Game Blackjack |
Even blackjack players aren’t
immune from house edge. Sure, a basic
strategy player on a 6-deck game is only facing a .56% house edge, which is
about one tenth that of a roulette player.
But it’s still a negative expectation game. Add to this the fact that if you don’t play
perfect basic strategy, your disadvantage gets higher for every strategy
deviation you make, and the average player is probably looking at a one percent
house edge.
The reason that they can
build those billion-dollar theme park casinos is due to the fact that the
owners and managers of casinos understand the math of the game. I mean, when was the last time you saw a pit
boss walk up to a dealer and tell him or her to hit until 18? Never.
That’s because pit bosses know that the only way to
generate a consistent profit is by playing a consistent game. Pit bosses are also trained to carefully
monitor the win/loss at every table in their pit. Every time money is dropped, every time a
fill is ordered, the personnel in the pit are trained to note the transaction.
Most players on the other
hand don’t think past the session they are playing. Unless they are marker players, who are
required to pay up before they head home, most players really don’t have a good
handle on how much they drop in the casinos over the course of a trip, much
less a year.
Even many card counters don’t
keep a ledger of their win/loss over the course of a year. That’s because most card counters are weekend
warriors who only play every now and then.
Professional players like me meticulously note everything from the
amount of time spent playing to the win loss, the shift and the pit boss. It’s only by keeping track of the stats that
pros can turn a consistent profit.
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Another way in which many
card counters derail the money train is by over-betting. Many card counting
systems teach counters to wager an amount proportional to the count. This philosophy, known as the Kelly Criterion,
infers that a count of +20 is twice as valuable as +10. I disagree.
Experience has shown me that no matter how high the count, the dealer
has just as much of a chance as catching a pat hand as I do. In fact, even if the dealer doesn’t catch a
pat hand, as long as the up card is a 7 or higher, the player can still bust
and lose before the dealer turns up the hole card. I
mean, are you really going to stand with a 13 versus a dealer 9 with $100 on
the line. Not me.
Far from betting proportional
to the count, I have found that pushing out a couple of $25 test bets when the
count first goes plus and then progressing to bets of $50 and then $75 based on
the success of my initial bets not only helps me protect my bankroll from huge negative swings, it also protects me from getting barred. One thing I have learned in more than 20 years
of playing blackjack for a living is that pit bosses don’t know how to count
cards, but they do know how to spot most card counters. If your typical wager is $5 when the count is
minus and $50-$100 when the count is plus, this is a dead giveaway that
you are counting cards. What the pit boss
will do at this juncture is call upstairs and have someone watch your
play. If you wager green or black when
the count is plus and red when the count is minus, be ready to get barred.
Progression players on the
other hand are welcomed with open arms.
That’s because all a progression does is put more money at risk
in any negative expectation game. What
the pit boss doesn’t factor in is when the player has the edge, as any card
counter does when the count goes plus, then using a progression allows me to
put more money into play when I have the advantage. It also makes my play look like a typical
progression player. Plus, if you keep your
wager below $100, the dealer doesn’t shout “Black Action,” alerting the pit
boss to start watching your play.
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| Image courtesy of Big Game Blackjack |
That being said, even I don’t
win every time I play. With an average
1% advantage, I win about 60% of the time, which means I lose 40% of the
time. Therefore, if I want to turn
a profit over the long haul, I need to contain my losses. The way I do it is to set loss limits. When I buy in, I only put a maximum of $300 into
play. If I lose $300, I get up from the
table and stalk another victim. If my
average wager is $50, this only gives me 6 units to risk. If I risked more, it could put my bankroll at
risk.
When you boil it down, what I’ve
learned over the years is that far from being able to win them all, most
players haven’t got a clue as to what it takes to win at all.
Want to learn more? Carl Van Eton has more than 20 years of professional playing experience. If you want to stop visiting your money every time you go to the casinos, check out his website at http://biggameblackjack.com
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